NFL Picks - Week 1

This year, sports reporter Paul Svoboda has handed off NFL Picks column to this writer. Svoboda will continue to contribute his picks.
It's been a few years since we've published this column, but we've always wanted to bring it back.
If you bet serious money based on our picks, don't call us looking for handouts when you're living under a bridge.
This year, the guest picker is local NFL nut and Dallas Cowboys fan (don’t hold that against him) Kevin “Swedish” McCrory — the only person to volunteer for the job.
This week, I'll start off with my season predictions and picks. Next week, it will strictly be quick game analysis and the picks.
AFC EAST
1. N.Y. Jets (12-4): Most talent in the division, Ladainian Tomlinson seems re-energized, defence and run games top-notch. Getting Darelle Revis back was huge.
2. Miami (11-5): Brandon Marshall gives them an added dimension, Chad Henne takes a step up and the run game is very good.
3. New England (8-8): Too one-dimensional on offence (all passing), and their defence is below average. That won't cut it in this division.
4. Buffalo (2-14): This teams has too many holes. First pick in 2011, here we come.
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore (13-3): Best in the division on both sides of the ball. Late addition of T.J. Houshmanzadeh huge. Only weakness here is a suspect pass defence.
2. Cincinnati (10-6): Terrell Owens will make a difference, because defences won't know who to double cover. The Bengals aced this division in head to head games in 2009. Will be interesting to see if they can pull it off again.
3. Pittsburgh (9-7): Will start Dennis Dixon while Ben Roethlisberger is out for four games. This will be a critical stretch for the Steelers' playoff hopes. When Roethlisberger returns, he could suffer from rust.
4. Cleveland (3-13): Jake Delhomme. Enough said.
AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis (13-3): Still the king until proven otherwise. Peyton Manning the best player in the NFL.
2. Houston (11-5): Runningback Arian Foster a big factor. If he plays like he has in the pre-season, this team will be a force. If not, they will be one dimensional on offence ... again.
3. Tennessee (9-7) - Will miss Kyle Vanden Bosch, and that's two very key D-linemen lost in two years. Not sold on Vince Young.
4. Jacksonville (4-12) - Poor Maurice Drew-Jones. Great player on an awful team
AFC WEST
1. Oakland (11-5) - Yeah, I said it. Oakland is going to overtake the Chargers this year. Every year a surprise team emerges. Based on the second half of 2009 and a much-improved QB situation, I think the Raiders will be that team.
2. San Diego (10-6): Those holdouts, especially Marcus McNeill, will hurt this team more than they think. Guys don't like seeing owners being cheap.
3. Denver (8-8): Desperately need one of their RBs to stay healthy, and will miss Brandon Marshall.
4. Kansas City (5-11): Two years in a row they've busted on top 5 defensive linemen in the draft (Tyson Jackson, Glenn Dorsey, and spent $60 million on a system quarterback (Matt Cassel) who is on a very short leash.
NFC EAST
1. Dallas (13-3): Player for player, the most talented team in the division. Will be hard to stop.
2. N.Y. Giants (11-5): Expect a rebound, but they're not in Dallas' class.
3. Philadelphia (8-8): New quarterback, absolutely brutal schedule and a head coach that thinks a 95/5 pass-run offence will win a Super Bowl.
4. Washington (5-11): Obviously upgraded at QB and coach, but they're in the wrong division.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay (14-2): Aaron Rodgers a pick by many to be the league's MVP. Only question mark, IMO, is the age of their corners. I think their run game keeps them from the Super Bowl.
2. Minnesota (11-5): No chance in hell Favre repeats what he did in 2009, but this is still a very formidable team.
3. Chicago (7-9): Overpaid Julius Peppers and are simply too old, period. Wide receivers are all No. 3-4 types, not a good thing.
4. Detroit (6-10): Maybe next year, kid ... but wouldn't be a total shock if they overtook Chicago. They're building the right way now.
NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta (12-4): Matt Ryan will step up in year three and Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White give this team nice weapons. Need defensive end John Abraham to rebound.
2. New Orleans (11-5): Still a very good team, but that D might get exposed a bit more this year.
3. Carolina (8-8): Great run duo, Steve Smith and a decent D. It's all on quarterback Matt Moore's shoulders now.
4. Tampa Bay (3-13): Honestly, I can't think of one area where this team stands out. Will compete with Buffalo for the Toilet Bowl.
NFC WEST
1. San Francisco (11-5): I believe in Alex Smith. I think he has the tools to be a solid NFL QB. Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis give this guy a lot of weapons. If Brian Westbrook stays healthy, it's an added dimension. Patrick Willis a beast.
2. Seattle (9-7): I buy this team overtaking Arizona for second. Matt Hasselbeck will rebound and their talent level is good enough for nine wins or so.
3. Arizona (7-9): Derek Anderson isn't the answer — and this team heavily relied on its quarterback the past few years. A complete collapse isn't out of the question, but runningback Chris 'Beanie' Wells might save them by giving the Cards some offensive balance.
4. St. Louis (4-12): Sam Bradford will start all 16 games and this team will show progress, but that's it.
AFC PLAYOFFS
Wild card
No. 6 Miami over No. 4 Oakland
No. 3 N.Y. Jets over No. 5 Houston
Divisional
No. 1 Baltimore over No. 6 Miami
No. 3 N.Y. Jets over No. 2 Indy
Conference final
No. 1 Baltimore over No. 3 N.Y. Jets
NFC PLAYOFFS
Wild card
No. 6 New Orleans over No. 4 San Francisco
No. 3 Atlanta over No. 5 N.Y. Giants
Divisional
No. 1 Green Bay over No. 6 New Orleans
No. 2 Dallas over No. 3 Atlanta
Conference final
No. 2 Dallas over No. 1 Green Bay
(I'm taking Dallas here because of their run game — always a factor in cold weather)
SUPER BOWL
Dallas 27 Baltimore 17

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Minnesota (+5.5) at New Orleans
Vachon: Vikings;
Svoboda: Saints
McCrory: Saints

Carolina (+7) at N.Y. Giants
Vachon: Giants
Svoboda: Giants
McCrory: Giants

Miami (-3) at Buffalo
Vachon: Fins
Svoboda: Bills
McCrory: Fins

Atlanta (-2.5) at Pittsburgh
Vachon: Steelers
Svoboda: Falcons
McCrory: Falcons

Detroit (+6.5) at Chicago
Vachon: Lions
Svoboda: Bears
McCrory: Lions

Cincinnati (+4.5) at New England
Vachon: Bengals
Svoboda: Bengals
McCrory: Pats

Cleveland (+3) at Tampa Bay
Vachon: Bucs
Svoboda: Browns
McCrory: Bucs

Denver (+2.5) at Jacksonville
Vachon: Broncos
Svoboda: Jags
McCrory: Broncos

Indianapolis (-2) at Houston
Vachon: Colts
Svoboda: Texans
McCrory: Colts

Oakland (+6) at Tennessee
Vachon: Raiders
Svoboda: Titans
McCrory: Titans

Green Bay (-3) at Philadelphia
Vachon: Packers
Svoboda: Packers
McCrory: Packers

San Francisco (-3) at Seattle
Vachon: Seahawks
Svoboda: Niners
McCrory: Niners

Arizona (-4) at St. Louis
Vachon: Rams
Svoboda: Cards
McCrory: Cards

Dallas (-3.5) at Washington
Vachon: Cowboys
Svoboda: Skins
McCrory: Cowboys

Baltimore (+2) at N.Y. Jets
Vachon: Ravens
Svoboda: Jets
McCrory: Jets

San Diego (-4.5) at Kansas City
Vachon: Chargers
Svoboda: Chargers
McCrory: Chargers